From Rick Ferri
The results are in and they are bad. After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy. Flip a coin and your odds for predicting the market are better.
It’s hard to imagine that the average market expert isn’t able to at least match the track record of a coin flip, but it’s true. Figure 1 has, by name, the relative performance accuracy of every guru that CXO Guru Grades has tracked.
All those talking heads on CNBC and other financial porn networks would actually give you worse results than a coin flip. It is amazing how much these guys get paid to be wrong so often. Hint, the more confident and certain they sound, the more likely they will completely miss the mark. Predicting the unpredictable is a losers game.